A simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic subjects aged 40–49 years

BACKGROUND Limited data are available for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic individuals aged 40-49 years. We aimed to identify risk factors and develop a simple prediction model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in these persons. METHODS Clinical data were collected on 2781 asymptomatic subjects aged 40-49 years who underwent colonoscopy for routine health examination. Subjects were randomly allocated to a development or validation set. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of advanced colorectal neoplasm. RESULTS The prevalence of overall and advanced colorectal neoplasm was 20.2 and 2.5% respectively. Older age (45-49 years), male sex, positive serology of Helicobacter pylori, and high triglyceride and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were independently associated with an increased risk of advanced colorectal neoplasm. BMI (body mass index) was not significant in multivariable analysis. We developed a simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm (range 0-9). A cutoff of ≥4 defined 43% of subjects as high risk for advanced colorectal neoplasm (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 58%; area under the receiver operating curve = 0.72) in the validation datasets. CONCLUSION Older age (45-49 years), male sex, positive serology of H. pylori, high triglyceride level, and low HDL level were identified as independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasm.